第十四課 (17 December 2011)
能源政治：國際安全的新熱點
袁彌昌博士主講（英國雷丁大學戰略研究系博士／新力量網絡主席）
Firstly, Mr. Derek Yuen introduced the world's energy picture included Russia, USA and China.
He showed the Energy Map in which showed a large portion of gas supply from Russia. The sources of US net petroleum imports in 2010 was mentioned that 49% from Western Hemisphere, 23% from Africa, 18% from Pesian Gulf and 10% from others.
The world's natural gas reserves were reviewed. Russia had the largest percentage on gas reserve.
Vladimir Putin was a strong leader in Russia and he was member of KGB (national security agency). He had a good strategy and policy on energy.
Pipeline monopoly was in Russia and re-exporting both oil and gas from the Caspian. The red color lines were pipeline from Russia which supplied gas to Europe.
In strategic ellipse, there were about 70% of natural gas reserved in this area.
Gas supply was very important on national security. The pipeline wars would be appeared in some economy planning such as Nabucco (expected to be completed in 2017) and South Stream (expected to be completed in 2015).
The Nabucco pipeline attempted to lessen European dependence on Russian energy. The South Stream project was seen as rival to the planned Nabucco pipeline.
US strategy was briefed such as to maintain its presence in Central Asia, to establish export routes bypassing Russia and Iran, and to diversify Europe's energy supply. There were 7 World's Choke points (咽喉要道) below.
Since China had increasingly dependent upon imported energy to sustain its economy. It needed to diversifying producers and transport options.
China signed many different trade agreements with Central Asia countries such as Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
Derek introduced a special report named "World Energy Outlook 2011" from International Energy Agency.
Reference:
Derek Yuen's Blog - http://derekyuen.wordpress.com/
World Energy Outlook 2011 - http://www.iea.org/weo/
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