Firstly, Dr. Peter WT Tse (SEAM) introduced the speaker Prof. Michael Pecht who is visiting Professor in CityU and Centre Director of CityU Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) Center.
Prof. Pecht showed a video to us in the beginning. It showed that the world changed very fast. TV is 13 years old, Internet is 4 year old, IPod is 3 year old and Facebook is only 2 years old. That means the first year study of undergraduate study (4 year study period) is outdated after graduated.
Then, Prof. Pecht introduced the history on reliability prediction of electronics as follows:
1965: US military developed Mil-Hdbk-217: a handbook for reliability prediction of electronics
1980s: The telecommunications industry adopted the 217 approach with various modifications
1988: CALCE was awarded 3 year $2M US government contract to assess Mil-Hdbk-217 and provide guidance for the future
Conclusion: Mil-Hdbk-217, Telecordia, Prism and other similar handbook methods have fundamental flaws built into them.
1999: CALCE awarded 5 year $12M US government contact to develop physics of failure models (software) for electronics industry to replace 217-based methods
2003: IEEE 1413 and IEEE 1413.1 issued. IEEE Standard Methodology for Reliability Prediction and Assessment for Electronic Systems and Equipment and IEEE Guide for Selecting and Using Reliability Predictions Based on IEEE 1413TM
2004: JEDEC-STD-148 Reliability Qualification of Semiconductor Devices based Physics of Failure Risk and Opportunity Assessment issued
IEEE 1413 and IEEE 1413.1
Since we don’t know the application situation of electronic product, Prognostics and Health Management was recommended.
Some people use mobile phone.
Car is freeze!
Dog spill to notebook!
After that Prof. Pecht explained what is Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). That is techniques utilizing in-situ monitoring and analysis to determine system health and remaining useful life with a defined level of confidence for a specified coverage of anticipated events.
PHM objectives are shown as follows:
- Provide usage data
- Provide an early warning of failures
- Improve and reduce qualification costs
- Provide guidance to extend useful life
- Forecast maintenance as needed
- Provide efficient fault detection
- Improve designs
Prof Pecht said PHM methodology used physics-of-failure models and environmental and operating history to predict products remaining life.
Finally, Prof Pecht made the following conclusions:
- The use of handbook methods such as Mil-Hdbk-217, 217-Plus, FIDES are inaccurate, misleading and not useful.
- Prognostics will be embedded in most critical electronics within the next 10 years.
- Fusion Prognostics will be used for qualification, screening and continuous remaining life assessment.
Dr. Albert Tsang (HKSQ chairman) presented souvenir to Prof. Michael Pecht.