The seminar named “Asset
Management and Reliability: Machine Learning + AI” coorganized by HKSQ, Minitab
and TQM held on 17th Nov 2018. Before the seminar, I took a photo
with Dr. Aaron Tong (Former chairman, HKSQ).
HKSQ exco team took a group
photo. Dr. Jane Wong (Exco member, HKSQ) joined the second part of the
seminar. Since the seminar was too attractive
for our members, it separated into two session with three speakers (09:00 a.m.
– 11:30 a.m. / 11:30 a.m. – 02:00 p.m.).
I also took a photo with speakers
and coorganizers.
(Left: I, Prof. Peter W. Tse (CityU), Ms. Iza Ng, Mr.
Ming Dong and Mr. Alex Kwan (Minitab))
I met Mr. Henry Li (Chairman,
IISE)).
Before the seminar start, three
guest speakers took a group photo.
Firstly, Dr. Aaron Tong gave a
welcome speech and introduced the seminar to all participants.
Mr. Ming Dong (Senior Technical
Training Manager, Minitab Pty Ltd) was the first speaker and his presentation entitled
“Using Minitab and Machine Learning Tools to Increase Maintenance Reliability
and Reduce Defective Products”. The main message of his talk included the
current state of asset, asset management system and reliability applied into
business.
Mr. Dong explained Reliability
that was “The probability (0~1) that a system or product would perform its
intended function under normal operation conditions for a specified period of time”. There had four reasons to analyze reliability
included “Predicting product reliability”, “Predicting or assessing warranty
costs”, “Assessing the effect of proposed design changes” and “Assessing
whether customers’ needs are met”. Then
he introduced the Bathtub Mode to under the shelf life.
After that Mr. Dong employed “Particular truck multiple failure modes” included Engine, Tire and Brake failure hour as example to using Minitab reliability software. He also explained series system and parallel system on reliability. He demonstrated Minitab using sample data and summarized its characteristic and capability.
And then Mr. Ming Dong introduced
“Salford Predictive Modeler (SPM)” that Salford Systems was a machine learning Software
Company founded in 1983 by Dr. Dan Steinbery after he completed his PhD in
Econometrics at Harvard. Minitab
acquired Salford System in March 2017. SPM
could be used for Machine Learning especially in manufacturing included
operation, asset management & maintenance, and field service.
Salford Predictive Modeler aimed
to optimize a large plant / company / service with many complex process steps,
many predictors, huge data sets, many complex nonlinear effects or
interactions, many missing values and outliers. The terminology of machine learning
were described as following diagram.
At the end, Mr. Ming Dong using
SPM for live demonstration.
Prof. Peter W. Tse (Director,
Smart Engineering Asset Management (SEAM) Laboratory, CityU) was the second
speaker and his topic named “AI in Reliability and Asset Management”. Firstly, Prof. Tse quoted McKinsey’s AI
Report to show us the AI technology trends included deep learning neural
networks, transfer learning and reinforcement learning.
Then Prof. Peter Tse briefed
Industrial AI and its relationship in the following diagram. That related to Sensor, IoT & Data, AI
and Industrial Big Data Analytics. Prof. Tse also mentioned Reliability in Data
6Vs (i.e. Volume, Velocity, Variety, Veracity, Visibility and Value), 3Bs (Bad,
Broken and Background) and 3Rs (Resources, Relationship and Reference).
After that Prof. Tse briefed the
Data-driven AI Algorithms separated into Supervised Learning and Unsupervised
Learning.
He also mentioned the importance
in knowing the collected data about their reliability and accuracy. There are three data validation for Machine
Learning including Detectability, Diagnosability and Prognosability.
Finally, Prof. Tse shared a real
case study about Slurry Pumps to predict its breakdown. He used sample of frequency analysis of
vibration data files collected from a health pump and a deteriorating pump. Prof. Tse said most experts only considered low
frequency that was not able to identify the problem but he employed high
frequency that could identify the failure.
Then he proposed a real-time condition-based &proactive maintenance
for the customer. Lastly, he concluded
that a fully automatic and intelligent system had been designed, tailor-made
and implemented for predicting the remained useful life (RUL) of slurry pumps. Hence, the occureence of sudden breakdown of
pumps was avoided.
Dr. Aaron Tong (Former Chairman,
HKSQ and China Outstanding Quality Professional, CAQ (中國傑出質量人)) was the third speaker and his
presentation entitled“-QA vs +QA” (減法質量保證 vs 傳統增量質量保證).
Dr. Tong reviewed the traditional
cost of quality and the idea approach expected to be reduced total cost of
quality (COQ) through the failure cost.
In fact, increased appraisal and
preventive cost could not be reduced the total COQ if you were
manufacturer. Because you increased cost
and the benefit for your buyer (not end customer). Your buyer only said “Thank You” and never
increase the price to you. Therefore,
Dr. Tong propose minus QA (-QA).
His approach was to reduce failure but did not increase cost on parts or inspection. Actually, he proposed to reduce the inspection and prevention cost. The core theory was focused on the root causes of production and its propagation. He requested supplier to do it right and no need to do better or best.
At the end, Dr. Aaron Tong shared
some successful cases such as “SUPOR” that employed –QA concept to reduce the
after-sale return rate from 3% to 0.9%
Reference:
HKSQ - www.hksq.org
TQM - www.tqm.com.hk
20180712: Minitab Seminar on “Machine Learning enhance Product
Reliability from Prediction to Execution” - https://qualityalchemist.blogspot.com/2018/07/minitab-seminar-on-machine-learning.html
20180414: HKSQ Congratulate to Dr. Aaron Tong awarded China
Outstanding Quality Professional (中國傑出質量人) 2017 and visit Beijing Industries - https://qualityalchemist.blogspot.com/2018/04/hksq-congratulate-to-dr-aaron-tong.html
20181108: The 3rd World Summit for Chinese Quality (WSCQ) – Day 1
(Part A) - https://qualityalchemist.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-3rd-world-summit-for-chinese.html
20090220: Engineering Asset Management - https://qualityalchemist.blogspot.com/2009/02/engineering-asset-management.html
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