The Executive
Study Group (ESG) seminar 2016 – Leadership Strategy series named “How to Embrace
Black Swans to Succeed Like Donald Trump” was held
by the ESG, Asia Pacific Institute for Strategy Limited (APIFS) and the
Hong Kong Science and Technology Parks Corp (HKSTPC) on 12 Dec 2016. I would like to summarize the seminar for
sharing below.
In the
beginning, Dr. Mark Lee discussed “What is Black Swan?” It was traced back to 1967. Before it, teachers confidently that all swans
were white until Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh landed in Australia and
found dark feathered birds like swans “Black Swans”. It demonstrated human think logic that “unlikely”
events seems “impossible” when they lie in the unknown or in the future. (That is pre-mature conclusion!)
Dr. Mark
Lee showed the original Apple’s logo in which had a small statement “A Mind
Forever Voyaging Through “Strange” Seas of Thought Alone.” 「永遠獨自航行在陌生之海中的思想家」
Then he
explained the Knowledge Map. It
separated into four combination of Known/Unknown Question (KQ / UQ) and
Known/Unknown Answer (KA / UA).
i)
Unawareness is UQ & KA.
ii)
Knowledge is KQ & KA.
iii)
Question is KQ & UA.
iv)
Absolute Truth is UQ & UA
Since
Black Swans located out of Knowledge, we usually blocked by the wall of our
familiar knowledge / experience. So
Black Swans had higher chance to happen out of our mind!
Dr. Mark
Lee then discussed “Negative Black Swans” and he quoted Titanic as example that
the Captain Smith’s ship sank in 1912 but he said that in all his experience,
he had never been in any accident! He
also quoted Prof. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book in 2007 “Black Swan” who stated
that the financial ecology was swelling into gigantic, incestuous, bureaucratic
banks. When one falls, they all fall! It
happened in 2008. It was because of “Lack
of Diversification” and “Lack of Small Bank’s Failures which are Valuable
Source for Learning”. So that it is less
exposure to the area of Unknown Question and Unknown Answer.
After
that Dr. Mark Lee quoted Prof. Taleb explanation on “Positive Black Swan” that
some segments of publishing, scientific research and venture capital in which
you lose small to make big! (Like free
newspaper in Hong Kong) Moreover, he
stated “Seize any opportunity, or anything that looks like opportunity.” Exposure was the first step to increase your
chance to Black Swans and did not discard opportunities too early.
Dr. Mark
Lee entered the main theme that “How Donald Trump Get Ready for Positive Black
Swans”. He quoted Trump statement that “You
have to think anyway, so why not think big?”
Then Dr.
Mark Lee extracted Trump’s three strategies toward to “Positive Black Swan”. They were “Basic Instinct”, “Creating Luck”
and “Big Momentum”.
The
first key strategy was “Basic Instinct”.
Dr. Lee used Trump’s Apprentice Show as example. Donald Trump had unexpected meeting with a
stranger who was Mark Burnett (Producer of Survivor) and then Mark Burnet had
innovation suggestion about reality shows for Donald Trump. At that time, warning by biggest Hollywood
Agent that no business show in the history of TV had ever made it in prime
time, never once. But Donald Trump believed
his Basic Instincts (Non-Expert Insights) to jump over the wall. So he said “Some things work because you “Do
Not Know” they are impossible.”
The
second key strategy was “Creating Luck”.
Donald Trump said “You can create your own luck. The harder you work,
the luckier you get.” Then Dr. Mark Lee
told us the story of US Recession Crisis in 1991. At that difficult time, Donald Trump had no
mood to attend Bankers’ Convention. Because
of his professional persistence, he attended the convention and the Brutal
Killer was next to him in the table. As
Ms. Oprah Winfrey said “Luck is a matter of preparation meeting opportunity.”
Donald Trump understood the banker’s pressure and built a trust with him,
finally, they worked out a great deal.
The
third key strategy was “Big Momentum”. He
said like a sales without initial response but just kept doing. In the beginning, nobody knew you and lack of
credentials. You needed to show
persistence and silently building momentum.
One day, Black Swans would appear.
Donald Trump had self-made momentum because he focused on specific goal
when he was studying finance at Wharton. He always challenged himself (Creating
new challenges) and moved from Queens to Manhattan for his real estate development
career.
Finally,
Dr. Mark Lee summarized nine strategies to be prepared for Positive Black Swans
as follows:
1)
Basic Instincts:
i)
You need really good instincts to make the best decisions
ii)
With experience, you can learn to go with your gut
iii)
Going with your instincts requires tuning in to everything around your
decisions
2)
Creating Luck
iv)
You can create your own luck.
v)
Be open to new information and ideas
vi)
Always think positively and expect the best.
3)
Big Momentum
vii)
To get momentum, focus on a specific goal with passion and intensity.
viii)
To keep momentum, keep challenging yourself.
ix)
Remember to keep going; if you stop, your momentum will stop.
At the
end, Dr. Mark Lee quoted Steve Jobs’ famous statement “Stay Hungry, Stay
Foolish”, and Laozi (老子) statement “A man of great wisdom often appears slow-witted” (大智若愚).
Every time, many people attended Dr. Mark
Lee’s seminar. Before the end, Dr. Lee
asked us to do excise to select one of key strategies was the most difficult
and one was the easiest for discussion.
Reference:
Asia Pacific Institute for Strategy Limited (亞太策略研究所有限公司) – www.apifs.org
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